Suchergebnisse

The explanation of the worldwide spread and long-term maintenance of economic asymmetries and centralized and hierarchical political structures is a major concern for sociological and humanistic disciplines. This problem may be formulated as a paradox when exploited and victimized groups overtly support the social order that subdues them. Archaeology is able to address this problem from a broad and long-term perspective. The aim of this paper is to discuss the implications of public, lethal physical violence in the context of class societies. These are characterized by economic exploitation, centralization of political power, labour specialization and heavy restrictions of vital and cognitive perspectives for most of the population. It is suggested that key social relations under these conditions could be similar to the hostage-captor bond. Henceforth, inferences based on social and psychobiological reasoning are suggested in order to solve the aforementioned social paradox. ; La explicación de la expansión mundial y el mantenimiento a largo plazo de disimetrías económicas y estructuras políticas centralizadas y jerárquicas constituye un tema fundamental para las disciplinas sociales y humanas. Esta problemática puede formularse como una paradoja cuando los grupos explotados y victimizados apoyan abiertamente el orden social que los somete. La arqueología tiene la capacidad de abordar este problema desde una perspectiva a largo plazo. El objetivo del presente artículo es analizar las implicaciones de la violencia física letal y pública en el contexto de las sociedades clasistas. Estas se caracterizan por explotación económica, poder político centralizado, especialización laboral y severas limitaciones en cuanto a las perspectivas vitales y cognitivas para la mayoría de la población. Se propone que algunas de las relaciones clave bajo dichas condiciones pueden asimilarse al vínculo entre rehén y captor. A partir de ahí, se plantean inferencias basadas en argumentos psicobiológicos a fin de resolver la paradoja social antes mencionada.

The detailed, rich and diverse Argaric funerary record offers an opportunity to explore social dimensions that usually remain elusive for prehistoric research, such us social rules on kinship rights and obligations, sexual tolerance and the role of funerary practices in preserving the economic and political organization. This paper addresses these topics through an analysis of the social meaning of Argaric double tombs by looking at body treatment and composition of grave goods assemblages according to gender and class affiliation. The Argaric seems to have been a conservative society, scarcely tolerant regarding homosexuality, and willing to celebrate ancestry associated to certain places as a means of asserting residence and property rights. ; La variedad, abundancia y detalle del registro funerario argárico permite explorar aspectos por lo general vedados a la investigación de las sociedades prehistóricas. Las normas sociales sobre la distribución de obligaciones y derechos según el parentesco, la permisividad respecto a las relaciones sexuales y el papel de las prácticas funerarias en el mantenimiento de la organización económico-política son algunos de dichos aspectos. En este artículo se propone un acercamiento a los mismos mediante un análisis del significado social de las tumbas dobles argáricas, la composición de los ajuares según el sexo y la clase social del individuo inhumado, así como el tratamiento y disposición de los cadáveres. Las conclusiones dibujan una sociedad conservadora, poco tolerante respecto la homosexualidad y que celebra positivamente los vínculos genealógicos asociados a ciertos espacios, afirmando así derechos de permanencia y propiedad.

Archaeological research carried out during the last decades in the Southeast of the Iberian Peninsula has allowed us to gain a better understanding of the social structures of the Copper and Bronze Ages. As in other parts of the Old World, the question about the importance of metallurgy for the economic and political development of society also rises in this region, well known for its rich ore deposits. After a general introduction into the so called Los Millares and El Argar cultures and the forces of production implied in metal working, the relations of production and consumption through which metal circulated are confronted. Hereby it becomes manifest how far the economic organisation of metallurgy and the political structure of society were mutually related. ; La investigación arqueológica desarrollada durante las últimas décadas en el Sudeste de la península Ibérica ha permitido mejorar nuestro conocimiento de las estructuras sociales del Calcolítico y Bronce. Al igual que en otras regiones con importantes depósitos minerales, también en el Sudeste se plantea la cuestión acerca del papel jugado por la metalurgia en el desarrollo económico y político de la sociedad. Tras una introducción general a las denominadas culturas de Los Millares y El Argar así como a las fuerzas productivas implicadas en la primera metalurgia, este trabajo confronta las relaciones de producción y de consumo a través de las cuales circuló el metal. Este recorrido pone de manifiesto hasta qué punto estuvieron relacionadas la organización económica de la metalurgia y la estructura política de la sociedad.

Background: There are many models that study aspects of smoking habits: the influence of price, tax, relapse time, and the effects of prohibition. There are also studies examining the effects of the Spanish smoke-free law. We wanted to build a model able to separate the effect of the law from the pre-law evolution of smoking habits. Methods: Using data from the Spanish Ministry of Health and Social Policy, we developed a dynamic model of tobacco use. The model projects the evolution over time of the number of non-smokers, smokers and ex-smokers before 2006. Then, we compared the predictions of the model with data for the years after the law came into force, 2006 and 2009. Results: We show that smoke-free law has had a significant impact on different sub-populations. The number of ex-smokers increased significantly in 2006 and this increase was maintained in 2009. The number of smokers also decreased significantly in 2006, but in 2009 this returned to its value before the law. Simultaneously, the number of non-smokers decreased in 2009. Conclusions: When the law came into force (2006), its restriction on smoking in public and work places made many smokers decide to give up smoking, decreasing the number of smokers and increasing the number of ex-smokers. In 2009, the majority of those who succeeded in giving up smoking did not return to the habit. However, the smoke-free law had no effect on new smokers and the number of smokers returned to previous levels, whereas the number of non-smokers decreased. Therefore, we can conclude that the law had a very positive effect in the first few years but this has dissipated over time, with the exception of ex-smokers, whose number is still higher than before the law. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. ; Guerrero Cortina, F.; Santonja, F.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2011). Analysing the Spanish smoke-free legislation of 2006: A new method to quantify its impact using a dynamic model. International Journal of Drug Policy. 22(4):247-251. doi:10.1016/j.drugpo.2011.05.003 ; S ; 247 ; 251 ; 22 ; 4

[EN] A fractional forward Euler-like method is developed to solve initial value problems with uncertainties formulated via the Caputo fractional derivative. The analysis is conducted by using the so-called random mean square calculus. Under mild conditions on the data, the mean square convergence of the numerical method is proved. This type of stochastic convergence guarantees the approximations of the mean and the variance of the solution stochastic process, computed via the aforementioned numerical scheme, will converge to their corresponding exact values. Furthermore, from this probability information, we calculate reliable approximations to the first probability density function of the solution by taking advantage of the Maximum Entropy Principle. The theoretical analysis is illustrated by two examples. ; This work has been partially supported by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad grant MTM2017-89664-P and by the European Union through the Operational Program of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)/European Social Fund (ESF) of the Valencian Community 20142020, grants GJIDI/2018/A/009 and GJIDI/2018/A/010. ; Burgos, C.; Cortés, J.; Villafuerte, L.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2020). Mean square convergent numerical solutions of random fractional differential equations: Approximations of moments and density. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics. 378:1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cam.2020.112925 ; S ; 1 ; 14 ; 378 ; Slama, H., El-Bedwhey, N. A., El-Depsy, A., & Selim, M. M. (2017). Solution of the finite Milne problem in stochastic media with RVT Technique. The European Physical Journal Plus, 132(12). doi:10.1140/epjp/i2017-11763-6 ; Golmankhaneh, A. K., Arefi, R., & Baleanu, D. (2013). Synchronization in a nonidentical fractional order of a proposed modified system. Journal of Vibration and Control, 21(6), 1154-1161. doi:10.1177/1077546313494953 ; Lupulescu, V., O'Regan, D., & ur Rahman, G. (2014). Existence results for random fractional differential equations. Opuscula ...

[EN] In this paper we propose a stochastic mathematical model with distributed delay in order to describe the transmission dynamics of cocaine consumption in Spain. We investigate conditions to guarantee the stability in probability of the equilibrium points under stochastic perturbations via the white noise processes. The results are applied to the model cocaine consumption using data retrieved from the Spanish Drug National Plan, http://www.pnsd.mscbs.gob.es/. The obtained results may be useful for policy health authorities in order to improve the strategies against the drug consumption in the long-run. ; This work has been supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economia, Industria y Competitividad (MINECO), the Agencia Estatal de Investigacion (AEI) and Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER UE) grant MTM2017-89664-P. Computations have been carried thanks to the collaboration of Raul San Julian Garces and Elena Lopez Navarro granted by European Union through the Operational Program of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)/European Social Fund (ESF) of the Valencian Community 2014-2020, grants GJIDI/2018/A/009 and GJIDI/2018/A/010, respectively ; Burgos-Simon, C.; Cortés, J.; Shaikhet, L.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2021). A delayed nonlinear stochastic model for cocaine consumption: Stability analysis and simulation using real data. Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems. Series S. 14(4):1233-1244. https://doi.org/10.3934/dcdss.2020356 ; S ; 1233 ; 1244 ; 14 ; 4

[EN] We provide a full stochastic description, via the first probability density function, of the solution of linear-quadratic logistic-type differential equation whose parameters involve both continuous and discrete random variables with arbitrary distributions. For the sake of generality, the initial condition is assumed to be a random variable too. We use the Dirac delta function to unify the treatment of hybrid (discrete-continuous) uncertainty. Under general hypotheses, we also compute the density of time until a certain value (usually representing the population) of the linear-quadratic logistic model is reached. The theoretical results are illustrated by means of several examples, including an application to modelling the number of users of Spotify using real data. We apply the Principle Maximum Entropy to assign plausible distributions to model parameters ; This work has been supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economa, Industria y Competitividad (MINECO) , the Agencia Estatal de Investigaci on (AEI) and Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER UE) grant MTM201789664P. Computations have been carried thanks to the collaboration of Raul San Julian Garces and Elena Lopez Navarro granted by European Union through the Operational Program of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) /European Social Fund (ESF) of the Valencian Community 2014-2020, grants GJIDI/2018/A/009 and GJIDI/2018/A/010, respectively ; Burgos-Simon, C.; Cortés, J.; López-Navarro, E.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2021). Probabilistic analysis of linear-quadratic logistic-type models with hybrid uncertainties via probability density functions. AIMS Mathematics. 6(5):4938-4957. https://doi.org/10.3934/math.2021290 ; S ; 4938 ; 4957 ; 6 ; 5 ; R. Goebel, R. G. Sanfelice, A. R. Teel, i>Hybrid Dynamical Systems: Modeling, Stability, and Robustness /i>, Princeton University Press, 2012. ; J. Lunze, F. Lamnabhi-Lagarrigue, i>Handbook of Hybrid Systems Control: Theory, Tools, Applications /i>, ser. Nonlinear Systems and Complexity, ...

[EN] Electronic commerce (EC) has numerous advantages. It allows saving time when we purchase an item, offers the possibility of review without depending on the schedules of traditional stores, access to a wider variety and quantity of articles, in many cases, with lower prices, etc. Based upon mathematical epidemiology tenets strongly related to social behavior able to describe the influence of peers, in this paper we propose an age-group dynamic model with population varying size based on a system of difference equations to study the evolution of the frequent users of EC over time in Spain. Using data from surveys retrieved from the Spanish National Statistics Institute, we use and design computational algorithms to perform a probabilistic estimation of the model parameters that allow the model output to capture the data uncertainty. Then, we will be able to perform a precise prediction with uncertainty. ; This work has been partially supported by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad grant MTM2017-89664-P and by the European Union through the Operational Program of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)/European Social Fund (ESF) of the Valencian Community 2014-2020, grants GJIDI/2018/A/009 and GJIDI/2018/A/010. ; Burgos-Simon, C.; Cortés, J.; Martínez-Rodríguez, D.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2019). Computational modelling with uncertainty of frequent users of e-commerce in Spain using an age-group dynamic nonlinear model with varying size population. Advances in Complex Systems. 22(4):1950009-1-1950009-17. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219525919500097 ; S ; 1950009-1 ; 1950009-17 ; 22 ; 4 ; Bettencourt, L. (1997). Customer voluntary performance: Customers as partners in service delivery. Journal of Retailing, 73(3), 383-406. doi:10.1016/s0022-4359(97)90024-5 ; Brauer, F., & Castillo-Chávez, C. (2001). Mathematical Models in Population Biology and Epidemiology. Texts in Applied Mathematics. doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-3516-1 ; Cortés, J.-C., Lombana, I.-C., & Villanueva, R.-J. (2010). Age-structured ...

Copyright © 2015 Juan-Carlos Cortés et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. ; [EN] The bomb attacks in Madrid three days before the general elections of March 14, 2004, and their possible influence on the victory of PSOE (Spanish Workers Socialist Party), defeating PP (Popular Party), have been a matter of study from several points of view (i.e., sociological, political, or statistical). In this paper, we present a dynamic model based on a system of differential equations such that it, using data from Spanish CIS (National Center of Sociological Research), describes the evolution of voting intention of the Spanish people over time. Using this model, we conclude that the probability is very low that the PSOE would have won had the attack not happened.Moreover, after the attack, the PSOE increased an average of 5.6% in voting onMarch 14 and an average of 11.2% of the Spanish people changed their vote betweenMarch 11 andMarch 14.These figures are in accordance with other studies. ; This work has been partially supported by the Ministerio de Econom´ıa y Competitividad Grants MTM2013-41765-P and TRA2012-36932. ; Cortés, J.; Sánchez, F.; Santonja Gómez, FJ.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2015). A Probabilistic Analysis to Quantify the Effect of March 11, 2004, Attacks in Madrid on the March 14 Elections in Spain: A Dynamic Modelling Approach. Abstract and Applied Analysis. 2015:1-9. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/387839 ; S ; 1 ; 9 ; 2015

This is an author's accepted manuscript of an article published in: "Mathematical and Computer Modelling of Dynamical Systems: Methods, Tools and Applications in Engineering and Related Sciences"; Volume 20, Issue 6, 2014; copyright Taylor & Francis; available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13873954.2013.843572 ; Taking into account available data from 2002 to 2009 about the market share percentages of the Spanish mobile telecommunications service providers, a dynamic diffusion model to study the evolution of the clients' change between the different companies during the period 2010–2016 is proposed. The constructed model provides a tool for forecasting short-term trends about the customers' preferences with respect to mobile network operators taking into account both, autonomous decisions due to direct marketing and advertising strategies, and also decisions adopted through interaction via social influence. The model can provide insights to companies for designing strategies in order to gain market share. ; This work has been partially supported by the FIS PI-10/01433; the Spanish Government and European Regional Development Fund (FEDER) [grant number MTM2009-08587]; and the Universitat Politecnica de Valencia [grant number PAID06-11-2070]. ; Cervelló Royo, RE.; Cortés, J.; Santonja, F.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2014). The dynamics over the next few years of the Spanish mobile telecommunications market share: a mathematical modelling approach. Mathematical and Computer Modelling of Dynamical Systems. 20(6):557-565. https://doi.org/10.1080/13873954.2013.843572 ; S ; 557 ; 565 ; 20 ; 6 ; Gruber, H. (1999). An investment view of mobile telecommunications in the European Union. Telecommunications Policy, 23(7-8), 521-538. doi:10.1016/s0308-5961(99)00042-7 ; Cortés, J.-C., Lombana, I.-C., & Villanueva, R.-J. (2010). Age-structured mathematical modeling approach to short-term diffusion of electronic commerce in Spain. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 52(7-8), 1045-1051. doi:10.1016/j.mcm.2010.02.030 ...

In this paper we describe epiModel, a code developed in Mathematica that facilitates the building of systems of differential equations corresponding to type-epidemiological linear or quadratic models whose characteristics are defined in text files following an easy syntax. It includes the possibility of obtaining the equations of models involving age and/or sex groups. © 2011. ; This work has been partially supported by the FIS PI-10/01433, the Spanish Government MICINN and FEDER Grant MTM2009-08587 and the Universitat Politecnica de Valencia Grant PAID-06-09 (ref. 2588). ; Cortés López, JC.; Sánchez-Sánchez, A.; Santonja, F.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2011). epiModel: A system to build automatically systems of differential equations of compartmental type-epidemiological models. Computers in Biology and Medicine. 41(11):999-1005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compbiomed.2011.06.018 ; S ; 999 ; 1005 ; 41 ; 11

[EN] A major challenge in human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine programs is the universal gender-neutral recommendation, as well as estimation of its long-term effect. The objective of this study is to predict the added benefit of male vaccination, especially in men who have sex with men (MSM), and to analyze the impact of the program on society. We propose a mathematical model of the HPV infection based on a network paradigm. Data from Spain allowed constructing the sexual network. HPV force of infection was taken from literature. Different scenarios using variable vaccine coverage in both males and females were studied. Strong herd immunity is shown in the heterosexual population, with an important decrease of HPV 6/11 infections both in men and in unvaccinated women with an only-women vaccination at 14 years of age. No impact of this program occurred in the infection incidence in MSM. This group would only benefit from a vaccination program that includes males. However, the impact at short term would be lower than in heterosexual men. The protection of MSM can only be achieved by direct vaccination of males. This may have important consequences for public health. ; This paper has been supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (MINECO), the Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI) and Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER UE) grant MTM2017-89664-P. This paper has been supported by the European Union through the Operational Program of the [European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)/European Social Fund (ESF)] of the Valencian Community 2014¿2020. Files: GJIDI/2018/A/010 and GJIDI/2018/A/009 ; Diez-Domingo, J.; Sánchez-Alonso, V.; Villanueva Micó, RJ.; Acedo, L.; Tuells, J. (2021). Impact of a Gender-Neutral HPV Vaccination Program in Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM). International Journal of Environmental research and Public Health (Online). 18(3):1-11. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18030963 ; S ; 1 ; 11 ; 18 ; 3

Copyright © 2013 R. Cervelló-Royo et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. ; Over the last years, worldwide financial market instability has shaken confidence in global economies. Global financial crisis and changes in sovereign debts ratings have affected the Latin American financial markets and their economies. However, Latin American s relative resilience to the more acute rise in risk seen in other regions like Europe during last years is offering investors new options for improving risk-return trade-offs. Therefore, forecasting the future of economic situation involves high levels of uncertainty. The Country Risk Score (CRS) represents a broadly used indicator to measure the current situation of a country regarding measures of economic, political, and financial risk in order to determine country risk ratings. In this contribution, we present a diffusion model to study the dynamics of the CRS in 18 Latin American countries which considers both the endogenous effect of each country policies and the contagion effect among them. The model predicts quite well the evolution of the CRS in the short term despite the economic and political instability. Furthermore, the model reproduces and forecasts a slight increasing trend, on average, in the CRS dynamics for almost all Latin American countries over the next months. ; This work has been partially supported by the Spanish M.C.Y.T. Grants MTM2009-08587 as well as the Universitat Politecnica de Valencia Grant PAID06-11 (ref. 2070). ; Cervelló Royo, RE.; Cortés, J.; Sánchez Sánchez, A.; Santonja, F.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2013). Forecasting Latin America's Country Risk Scores by Means of a Dynamic Diffusion Model. Abstract and Applied Analysis. 2013:1-11. https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/264657 ; S ; 1 ; 11 ; 2013 ; Fernandez-Arias, E., & Montiel, P. J. (1996). The Surge in Capital Inflows ...

[EN] Mathematical models have been remarkable tools for knowing in advance the appropriate time to enforce population restrictions and distribute hospital resources. Here, we present a mathematical Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Granada, Spain, taking into account the uncertainty of the phenomenon. In the model, the patients moving throughout the hospital's departments (intra-hospitalary circuit) are considered in order to help to optimize the use of a hospital's resources in the future. Two main seasons, September-April (autumn-winter) and May-August (summer), where the hospital pressure is significantly different, have been included. The model is calibrated and validated with data obtained from the hospitals in Granada. Possible future scenarios have been simulated. The model is able to capture the history of the pandemic in Granada. It provides predictions about the intra-hospitalary COVID-19 circuit over time and shows that the number of infected is expected to decline continuously from May without an increase next autumn-winter if population measures continue to be satisfied. The model strongly suggests that the number of infected cases will reduce rapidly with aggressive vaccination policies. The proposed study is being used in Granada to design public health policies and perform wise re-distribution of hospital resources in advance. ; This research was funded by the Spanish Ministerio de Economia, Industria y Competitividad (MINECO), the Agencia Estatal de Investigacion (AEI) and Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER UE) grant MTM2017-89664-P and the European Union through the Operational Program of the [European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)/European Social Fund (ESF)] of the Valencian Community 2014-2020. Files: GJIDI/2018/A/010 and GJIDI/2018/A/009 and the Ramon Areces Foundation, Madrid, Spain (CIVP18A3920). ; Garrido, JM.; Martínez-Rodríguez, D.; Rodriguez-Serrano, F.; Sferle, S.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2021). Modeling ...

The Spanish Ministerio de Economia, Industria y Competitividad (MINECO), the Agencia Estatal de Investigacion (AEI) and Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER UE) grant MTM2017-89664-P; the European Union through the Operational Program of the [European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) / European Social Fund (ESF)] of the Valencian Community 2014-2020. Files: GJIDI/2018/A/010 and GJIDI/2018/A/009; the Ramon Areces Foundation, Madrid, Spain (CIVP18A3920). ; Garrido, J.; Martínez-Rodríguez, D.; Rodríguez-Serrano, F.; Julián, RS.; Villanueva Micó, RJ. (2020). Epidemiological modelling of COVID-19 in Granada, Spain: Analysis of future scenarios. 91-95. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/178195 ; S ; 91 ; 95